FirstWARN 10-Day Weather Forecast – March 6, 2025

Today will be much calmer compared to the active weather seen in recent days. The strong low-pressure system responsible for intense winds, precipitation, and fluctuating temperatures is now moving well to the northeast. Winds will continue to subside throughout the morning, and as high pressure builds in from the south, skies will clear, allowing for abundant sunshine across the region. This will set the stage for a relatively quiet and pleasant day with seasonable temperatures.

Tonight, a shift in the wind pattern will begin as the surface ridge moves east, allowing for a return of southerly flow. This change in wind direction is associated with the next approaching system, which is currently strengthening over the central Rockies. Moisture advection will increase overnight, bringing more clouds into the region. Despite the uptick in moisture, rainfall will likely remain focused north of Interstate 70 through much of Friday, with the best chances closer to the Iowa border. While some forecast models hint at isolated showers sneaking farther south, a dry layer in the atmosphere will likely prevent meaningful rainfall outside of far northern Missouri and central Illinois.

By Friday afternoon, temperatures will become the more notable weather story. With the storm system tracking slightly farther north than originally expected, much of Missouri will end up on the warm side of the boundary. This means southwesterly winds will aid in transporting warmer air into the region. Locations along and south of I-70 will see temperatures climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with some spots possibly reaching 70 degrees before the day is over. Areas farther north will remain cooler, with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s due to the proximity of the cold front.

Friday night into Saturday, the system will begin to dip southeastward toward the Tennessee Valley, allowing a cold front to push through the region. There may be a few scattered showers along the front during the evening hours, but widespread rainfall does not look promising as deeper moisture remains south. The best chances for any measurable rain will be north of I-70, while areas farther south will likely remain mostly dry. Once the front moves through, cooler air will filter in, though temperatures will still be close to seasonal norms for early March. Highs on Saturday will settle in the 50s, making for a seasonable and quiet weekend overall.

Sunday will bring slightly warmer temperatures as surface high pressure briefly takes control. A developing low-pressure system over the southern Plains will remain far enough south to keep the region dry, but it will begin to influence the pattern heading into next week.

A major shift is expected next week as an amplified upper-level ridge builds across the central U.S., allowing for a strong surge of warmth. With southwesterly winds in place and a large area of surface high pressure positioned over the northern Gulf of Mexico, temperatures will begin to climb well above normal. Confidence is increasing that highs will push into the 60s and 70s for multiple days, possibly reaching 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

Long-range model ensembles are in agreement that this warming trend will persist through midweek, though there are still some uncertainties regarding the exact temperatures. The latest trends suggest that Monday through Wednesday will feature widespread 60s and potentially mid-70s in parts of Missouri and Illinois. However, differences between forecast models indicate some uncertainty in how strong the warm surge will be. The evolution of an approaching trough and surface low by midweek could determine how long the warmth lasts and whether any active weather develops toward the latter part of the week.

In summary, the next few days will bring a return to quieter weather, with gradually warming temperatures leading into next week. While a cold front will provide a brief cooldown this weekend, a surge of unseasonably warm air is expected early next week, bringing a taste of spring across the region.

Issued by: Dr. Nick Palisch, Meteorologist
FirstWARN Weather Team
www.firstwarnwx.com