FIRST WARN 10-DAY WEATHER FORECAST
Friday, May 23, 2025

Clouds are on the move today, signaling a shift in our pattern just in time for the holiday weekend. A cool area of high pressure is sliding southeast, leaving behind a dry but crisp start this morning. Some sunshine through midday will help bump temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s, but that’s as far as we’ll go before clouds increase again late in the day. Those clouds will hang tough—and so will below-average temperatures—right through the weekend and into early next week.

Scattered showers may begin arriving as early as this evening, primarily in our southwestern counties, as subtle upper-level disturbances ride along the northwesterly flow. Areas closer to the Ozarks have the best shot at rain tonight and through the weekend, while northern and eastern zones may sneak in longer dry spells. Rainfall amounts will generally be light locally, though areas farther southwest may pick up more meaningful totals with each wave.

Saturday and Sunday continue the same trend: mostly cloudy skies, highs stuck in the 60s (and low 70s where sun peeks through), and periodic rain chances—especially overnight and early morning. The pattern is classic late spring: impulses riding down the ridge to our west, moisture struggling to fully return due to persistent northeast surface flow, and uncertain cloud cover making temperature forecasting tricky.

Heading into Memorial Day and beyond, the upper-level setup shifts. A deeper trough in the West and lingering low pressure in the Great Lakes will set the stage for more organized rainfall opportunities Monday into Tuesday. While we’re not expecting widespread flooding, several rounds of showers will gradually add up, particularly in southern Missouri. Rivers may see some rises, but flash flood risk remains low at this time.

As we look toward the middle and end of next week, forecast confidence begins to fade. Some model solutions keep the wet pattern going with additional disturbances and rain chances into late week, while others begin to dry us out as northwest flow takes over. For now, we’re cautiously optimistic for a gradual warm-up midweek, with highs returning to the 70s—but that will depend heavily on cloud cover and how quickly this unsettled pattern breaks down.

In short: the holiday weekend won’t be a washout, but it will be on the cloudy and cool side with occasional rain, especially the farther south and west you go. Keep the umbrella handy, and don’t pack away the light jacket just yet.

Stay weather-aware—and we’ll keep you updated every step of the way.